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RevPAR will reach its cyclical low point in the thirdr quarterof 2009, closing the escalatingy trend of declines in RevPAR that begann in the third quarter of 2008, according to . "Thd good news is that the bottom of the current cycled forthe U.S. hotel industry is soon to said R. Mark Woodworth, president of PKF Hospitality in anews release. “The bad news is that 2009 will be the weakesyt year on record for the domesticlodging industry, and 2010 is goinyg to be disappointing as well. If you are wondering when we'lol start to see actual growthin RevPAR, then you'llk have to wait until 2011.
However, if you want to know when the operatingt environment is going to get a littlless painful, that's happening righf now." Lodging forecasts presented in the June 2009 editionn of Hotel Horizons are based on Smitbh Travel Research hotel performance data through March 2009 and Moody'sd Economy.com's May 2009 economic forecasf for the nation. Given the correlation betweenm employment andlodging demand, the new expectation is for RevPA to decline 17.5 percent in 2009, followed by another 3.5 percent decline in 2010. Year-over-yearr quarterly declines in the demandfor U.S.
lodging accommodations startecd in the first quarter of 2008 and peaked at negatived 8 percent in the first quarterof 2009. The June 2009 edition of Hotel Horizons forecasts demand to declined each of the remaining quartersof 2009, but at a diminishin pace. The projected quarterly declines in demandc for the remainder of 2009 averagwejust 4.7 percent. Beyoncd 2009, the forecast calls for average annuakl increases in demandof 3.2 percent for the next four well above the 1.9 percent long-term But given the forecast 17.5 percent decline in RevPAR for all of PKF-HR is projecting total hotel revenues to decrease 16 percent for the year.
In 2011 and PKF-HR forecasts that RevPAR will increase on an average annual basiszof 9.2 percent, while profitsw will rise at a 17.8 percent
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